Policy Simulation
Evidence-based decision systems for budget allocation, service planning, and policy impact analysis
Problem Statement
Government policy teams must make decisions amid limited budgets and complex stakeholder interests. Predicting policy effects in advance, comparing various scenarios, and transparently documenting decision rationale is essential.
Common Decisions
- Budget allocation priorities and resource distribution
- Service coverage scope and target selection
- Policy intervention timing and intensity
- Infrastructure investment planning and site selection
- Regulatory/incentive policy design
Required Inputs
* Minimal internal data possible
- 1Current budget/expenditure data
- 2Population/demand statistics (public data available)
- 3Policy objectives and KPI definitions
- 4Constraints (laws, budget limits, political considerations)
- 5Stakeholder priorities
- 6Historical policy performance data (optional)
Output Spec
Decision Packet Components
CEA (Cost-Effectiveness Analysis)
Cost-benefit analysis across policy alternatives
BIA (Budget Impact Analysis)
Phase-by-phase fiscal requirements for policy implementation
Uncertainty (Sensitivity Analysis)
Policy outcome variation under key assumption changes
Audit (Decision Log)
Full traceability - assumptions, data sources, policy rationale history
Typical Timeline
Diagnostic Phase
Policy context understanding, data acquisition, decision frame definition, scenario design
Sprint Phase
Simulation model building, scenario analysis, recommendation development, report writing
Security & Deployment
- Government security standards compliance (G-Cloud, etc.)
- Sensitive data separation and anonymization
- Analysis result versioning and history tracking
- Public/confidential deliverable management
Package
Decision Brief
Policy recommendation summary (1-2p) for decision-makers
Scenario Pack
3-5 policy scenario impact analysis and comparison
Audit Pack
Assumptions, data sources, analysis logs - audit/disclosure ready