National Assembly Office — Healthcare Workforce Policy
Simulated 4 policy scenarios for medical workforce distribution and regional access. Delivered audit-ready Decision Packet for parliamentary committee.
Problem
When comparing policy alternatives, cost-effectiveness analysis, budget impact, and uncertainty analysis were fragmented, making it difficult for decision-makers to judge from an integrated perspective. Evidence documentation for internal persuasion and audit response was not systematically organized.
Decision to Make
Among proposed policy options A, B, and C, which has the highest cost-effectiveness? What are the budget impacts and risks of each option? Under what conditions would the conclusion change?
Inputs (Data)
Approach
Calculated ICER for each policy alternative through CEA (Cost-Effectiveness Analysis) and ranked them. Predicted annual fiscal requirements through BIA (Budget Impact Analysis) and presented uncertainty ranges through PSA (Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis). Integrated all analysis results into a single Decision Packet and transparently documented falsifiability by specifying 'What would change my mind' conditions.
Deliverables
Result
Provided integrated document enabling clear comparison of decision options. Used as evidence for internal persuasion, shortening policy consensus process. Available as transparent decision rationale for audit response.
